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Fixed Income Daily: Bond market and currency metrics for African capital markets
Gabon - Episodic bouts of volatility and risk-off sentiment aside, Gabon is positioned to benefit from a policy-induced softening dollar narrative.
DRC Quarterly Update: Strong mineral output to soften the economic blow of Covid-19
The economic impact caused by the Covid-19 pandemic has been marked, albeit softer than anticipated due to stronger-than-expected mining production. Copper production rose by 13.2% y-o-y to 1,041,440...
Daily Africa Insight: An overview of today’s key events and developments
Angola – Debt relief and budget support extended. Côte d’Ivoire – Lower transportation costs prompt deceleration in inflation. Kenya – Chief Justice call to dissolve Parliament won’t be heeded. Moroc...
Although Q2's GDP contraction was less severe than expected, a fragile rebound is on the cards
Real GDP contracted by 6.1% y-o-y in Q2. While a significant slump, this was less serious than we had expected, so the print prompted an upward revision in our forecast which now sees economic output...
Weekly Africa Insight: Overview of the past week’s political and macroeconomic developments
Africa – Weekly Covid-19 update (Sep 18). Algeria – Inflation slowed during first seven months of the year (Sep 22). Angola – Debt relief and budget support extended (Sep 23). Botswana – Debt ceiling...
Talking Point: Zambia – Consent solicitation announced as restructuring heats up
On September 22, the ministry of finance released a consent solicitation to Eurobond holders by which the government requests the suspension of debt service payments for a period of six months (commen...
Talking Point: Kenya – Chief Justice call to dissolve Parliament won’t be heeded
A letter by Chief Justice David Maraga, sent to President Uhuru Kenyatta on Monday, September 21, has set the cat among the pigeons by recommending the dissolution of Parliament. Mr Maraga has made th...
Talking Point: Angola – Debt relief and budget support extended
The IMF confirmed earlier this week that Angola could receive up to $6.2bn in debt relief over the next three years from three of its most prominent creditors, with the agreements close to being compl...
Talking Point: Morocco – Key policy rates held steady as inflation rises in August
On Tuesday, September 22, the Council of the Bank al-Maghrib (BAM) decided to keep key policy rates unchanged at 1.5% at its third quarterly meeting of the year. In a statement, the Council noted that...
Nigeria Quarterly Update: GDP contraction less severe in Q2, but outlook deteriorates
The economy reflected a less severe slowdown during the second quarter, suggesting that GDP may not contract by as much as previously anticipated in 2020. However, the economic rebound will likely be...
South Africa: Outlook remains grim after record quarterly contraction in Q2
Economic output dropped by 17.1% y-o-y in 2020 Q2, while GDP for the first half of 2020 came in 8.7% lower than that in H1 2019. Nine out of 10 sectors recorded contractions in Q2, with agriculture th...
Talking Point: Côte d’Ivoire – Lower transportation costs prompt deceleration in inflation
The most recent consumer price index (CPI) figures released by the National Institute of Statistics (INS) indicate that inflationary pressure in Côte d’Ivoire has eased on both a m-o-m and y-o-y basis...
Talking Point: Nigeria – Rate cut as CBN relies on supply-side measures
The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) unexpectedly decided to reduce the policy rate on September 22. The monetary policy rate (MPR) was reduced by 100 bps to 11.5%,...
eSwatini: Economy seen plunging this year, in lockstep with larger neighbour
Even before the shock waves from the Covid-19 pandemic reverberated through the economy, eSwatini had already entered a technical recession in the first quarter of this year. Against the backdrop of a...
Featured African Economic Insights
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.#Zambia requests six-month debt suspension of debt service payments from Eurobond holders after indicating in August that it will seek private sector participation in the DSSI.
.#Kenya’s Chief Justice David Maraga has recommended to President Uhuru Kenyatta that the country’s Parliament be dissolved for failing to enact gender parity legislation, as per the constitution, but his calls are unlikely to be heeded.
Expected debt relief for #Angola of up to $6.2bn over the next three years from three of its most prominent creditors to help fill the financing gap.
The Council of the Bank al-Maghrib (BAM) decided to keep #Morocco`s key policy rate unchanged at 1.5% at its most recent meeting on Tuesday, September 22.
.#Inflation in #CotedIvoire has slowed somewhat in August on the back of weaker oil prices and easing transportation costs. Currently averaging 2.5% for 2020 so far, it seems like the oil price will determine the direction of inflation in the last four months of the year.
.#CBN reduces #Nigeria’s policy rate by 100 bps to 11.5% despite inflation trending sharply higher. CBN now to rely on supply-side measures to combat inflation, but will this have the desired impact?
Former president of #Malawi Joyce Banda has been implicated in the US #FinCENfiles which revealed how $2trn in illicit funds moved across 170 countries for two decades. She is being investigated over an arms deal with #SouthAfrica’s Paramount Group.
Our expectation of trouble in #Cotedivoire over the rest of the year has been strengthened by Bédié’s call for civil disobedience. President Ouattara remains the favourite to win.
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Africa Economic Insight
Get unparalleled economic and political insight into 54 African economies. Download up to three Research Briefings for free. Or, to get unlimited access to NKC African Economics' full database of briefings, commentary, daily analysis, high-quality research and data, request a free trial today.
Sample Country Report
Download a free sample report, highlighting our economic analysis, as well as incorporating our political assessment for Nigeria in 2018.
Bespoke Policy and Scenario Analysis
A detailed scenario analysis of different policy actions the Central Bank of Nigeria could take in response to the foreign exchange liquidity squeeze in 2016, the effects on foreign reserves to be expected under each, and the resulting consequences for firms needing to repatriate profits.