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Talking Point: Africa – PMIs more of a mixed bag in April
East African PMIs moved in opposite directions in April. Uganda’s private sector activity rose for a third-consecutive month to reach 57.8 points. The continued improvement in business activity signal...
Pre-pandemic weakness weighing on post-pandemic recovery
Real GDP fell by 8.0% in 2020 as the tourism, transport, mining, and manufacturing industries tanked due to the adverse effects of the coronavirus pandemic. We forecast a relatively weak recovery from...
Talking Point: Rwanda – Journalists, others sentenced on terrorism charges
A court in Kigali has sentenced Phocas Ndayizera, a freelance journalist and contributor to BBC Gahuzamiryango, to 10 years’ imprisonment on terrorism-related charges on Thursday, May 7. Mr Ndayizera...
Talking Point: Africa – Weekly Covid-19 update, May 7
As of Thursday, May 6, there were a total of 360,446 active cases of Covid-19 (confirmed cases minus recoveries and deaths) in Africa. This represents a weekly decrease in active cases on the continen...
Talking Point: Tanzania – External deficit widens due to weak export earnings
According to the Bank of Tanzania (BoT), the current account deficit widened from $334m in Q1 2020 to $480m in Q1 2021. The weakening can be attributed to a widening in the merchandise trade deficit a...
Talking Point: Ethiopia – Ethio Telecom to launch mobile money service
State-run Ethio Telecom confirmed on May 6 that a mobile money service will be launched next week, having indicated previously that the new TeleBirr initiative will be launched in May. TeleBirr will c...
Weekly Africa Political Risk Report: Overview of the past week’s political developments
Central Africa – Chad’s military-led transition will continue (May 5). DRC – State of siege (May 5). East Africa – Somali President Farmajo’s term extension cancelled (May 3). Kenya – Constitutional a...
SA Monthly Political Overview: Battle won, but war continues
The balance of power within the ruling African National Congress (ANC) shifted noticeably in March and this trend continued into April, when the camp of corruption-charged Secretary General Ace Magash...
Talking Point: Kenya – Private sector activity falls sharply to near pandemic lows
The latest purchasing managers’ index (PMI) – produced by IHS Markit and Stanbic Bank – shows that private sector activity and business conditions deteriorated in April. The headline PMI figure plunge...
Talking Point: Tanzania – Health minister implements Covid-19 measures
After over a year of downplaying the Covid-19 pandemic, Tanzania has finally implemented measures to curb the spread of the deadly virus. “Based on the global epidemiological situation and emergence o...
Talking Point: Egypt – Private sector activity staggers into 2021 Q2
The April IHS Markit PMI makes for disappointing reading: the headline index fell further, price pressures intensified, and hitherto resilient sentiment took a severe knock. The headline index eased f...
Talking Point: Ghana – Private sector activity garners further momentum
According to the latest release of the IHS Markit purchasing managers’ index (PMI), the expansion of private sector activity in Ghana accelerated in April. After declining from 52.5 in February to 51....
SA Daily Economic Report: Morning market update
Ace Magashule suspended. Now what? SA recovery tracker at highest level in April ZAR advances in quiet trading session Brighter outlook raises risks of an earlier rate lift-off in the UK
Fixed Income Daily: Bond market and currency metrics for African capital markets
Tanzania - The Bank of Tanzania (BoT) followed the recent 25-year bond issuance with another oversubscribed auction on May 5. In a press release, the BoT explained that the 25-year Treasury bond is a...
Featured African Economic Insights
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The goods trade surplus narrowed in #Botswana as the diamond trade enters the quieter period of the year.
Industrial activity in #CôtedIvoire ended 2020 on a strong note, although contracting by 1.2% overall. The surge in global #Covid19 cases early in 2021, however, dampened activity once more. Should global cases remain low, activity should recover again from 2021 Q2 onwards.
The submission of only two bids for the telecom operating licenses in #Ethiopia came as a disappointment, but the partial privatisation of Ethio Telecom should lure greater interest.
Total declares force majeure on $20bn LNG project in #Mozambique ft.com/content/841a63… via @financialtimes @NKCAfrica
The cost of living in #EastAfrica countries is on a worrying upward trend, with governments shifting huge debt repayments burdens to households and businesses through increased taxation measures. theeastafrican.co.ke/tea/business/c… via @The_EastAfrican
.#Zambia has taken on $1.5 billion in debt to acquire a loss-making copper mine, raising fears it could ultimately hand the strategic asset to its top creditor, China wsj.com/articles/after… via @WSJ @NKCAfrica
.#Angola #GDP contracts by 5.4% y-o-y in Q4 2020 amid an 11% y-o-y drop in petroleum industry production, confirming that annual economic growth has declined for five straight years. bit.ly/3vm4W5t
The Bank of #Uganda’s composite index of economic activity shows recovery in February following election turmoil.
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Africa Economic Insight
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Sample Country Report
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Bespoke Policy and Scenario Analysis
A detailed scenario analysis of different policy actions the Central Bank of Nigeria could take in response to the foreign exchange liquidity squeeze in 2016, the effects on foreign reserves to be expected under each, and the resulting consequences for firms needing to repatriate profits.