Latest Analysis
Fixed Income Daily: Fragile politics, weak outlook for PMI, and uncertain spillover effects from external headwinds
Botswana - The growth forecast for this year has now been trimmed to 2.6%, but we expect the pace of economic expansion to quicken to 3.1% in 2023 and 3.6% in 2024. For 2021, we now estimate that Bots...
Botswana Quarterly Update: After double-digit growth in 2021, economy to expand at a pre-pandemic pace again
We forecast that growth will slow to 2.6% in 2022 as most of last year’s growth was driven by base effects, in particular the strong recovery in diamond production, which we expect will not be sustain...
Daily Africa Insight: Shaky politics and headwinds weigh on sentiment
Lesotho – ABC looks to collapse government. Rwanda – Slowdown in goods trade at the start of the year. Zambia – PMI improved but external factors to weigh on sentiment.
Talking Point: Zambia – PMI improved but external factors to weigh on sentiment
The IHS Markit/Stanbic Bank PMI entered expansionary territory again after a brief slump to 49.9 in January. New orders rose for a seventh-consecutive month, allowing the February PMI reading to climb...
Talking Point: Lesotho – ABC looks to collapse government
The All Basotho Convention (ABC) announced its intention to withdraw from the coalition government it dominates, seemingly in a bid to oust Prime Minister Moeketsi Majoro. The Speaker of the National...
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.#Angola crude #oil production dipped for the second-consecutive month in March. Nevertheless, oil output did improve slightly in Q1 2022 as a whole compared with Q1 2021.
President Ouattara of #Cotedivore has named a vice-president: Tiemoko Meyliet Koné, an economist who has spent most of his career at the West African central bank, the BCEAO. The nomination is positive from the point of view of governance.
.#SouthAfrica headline inflation rate came in at 5.9% y-o-y in March, 0.2 ppt higher than the previous month. The March inflation print was slightly lower than the consensus forecast of 6.0% y-o-y.
In its WEO for April the #IMF makes downward revisions to the global growth outlook in response to the war in Ukraine. #Africa is an exception: the Fund’s view of growth in sub-Saharan Africa is unchanged since October. But the outlook for the price environment is bleak.
Inflation in #Sudan rose to 263.2% y-o-y in March. The October coup d'état has sent the already fragile economy into free fall. Living standards are rapidly deteriorating as prices continue to soar, and 18 million people are at risk of facing food insecurity in coming months.
.#Angola #inflation rate dips slightly in March, marking the second-straight disinflation reading this year. The stronger kwanza should give consumers some reprieve this year.
The number of #tourists visiting #Mauritius rose to 66,066 in March as Covid-19 restrictions were relaxed and pandemic-related fears became more of a faint memory.
The #inflation outlook in #Nigeria deteriorated over the past month as the headline print rose to 15.9% y-o-y due to food and fuel prices pressures. Inflation should continue trending upwards throughout Q2 and Q3, averaging above 16.0% this year.
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