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Weekly Africa Political Risk Report: Postponed elections and slow democratic transitions
East Africa – Somalia presidential elections delayed again (Mar 2). Egypt – Strikers tear-gassed (Feb 25). Eswatini – Question marks hang over national dialogue (Feb 25). Kenya – From our Quarterly Up...
Talking Point: Rwanda – Slowdown in goods trade at the start of the year
The latest trade data from the National Institute of Rwanda (NISR) indicates that trade volumes declined in January in comparison with December 2021. Imports declined by 11.1% m-o-m relative to Decemb...
South Africa Monthly Political Overview: The temptation of moral compromise
In February, politics will always be dominated by the State of the Nation Address (Sona) and Budget speech which give government an opportunity to put its best foot forward. President Cyril Ramaphosa...
Fixed Income Daily: Spiking oil prices undermine imports, drought and war to weigh on food prices
Côte d’Ivoire - Conceding the downside risk to growth associated with conflict-related pressure on the import bill and upward risk to inflation, we expect an economic expansion of 6.3% this year after...
Daily Africa Insight: Inflation scares and improving PMIs
Côte d’Ivoire – Industrial sector should enter 2022 on the front foot. Egypt – Non-oil sector shrinks for 15th consecutive month. Kenya – Drought and war to catapult food price inflation. Libya – HoR...
Weekly Africa Insight: Consumer prices soar, while global political developments weigh on sentiment
Africa – African countries face a fifth wave of infections (Feb 25). Botswana – Bank rate unchanged but will be replaced as benchmark (Feb 25). Côte d’Ivoire – Industrial sector should enter 2022 on t...
Research Briefing: Africa – Ripple effects of a Russia-Ukraine war
The Russia-Ukraine war is set to have implications for economies across the globe and African markets won’t be spared. Trade disruptions and soaring commodity prices will be felt by some of Africa’s m...
Talking Point: Zimbabwe – Local currency stuck in a rut
The Zimbabwean dollar started 2021 trading at about ZWL$82 against the US dollar. However, the local unit has been on the back foot ever since and is currently trading at roughly ZWL$127.5/$. The stor...
Talking Point: Kenya – Drought and war to catapult food price inflation
Consumer price inflation slowed to 5.1% y-o-y in February, after easing to 5.4% y-o-y in January. The deceleration reflects disinflation in the transport, housing & utilities, and food & non-alcoholic...
Talking Point: Senegal – Prosecutor goes after Dakar mayor again
On Wednesday, March 2, the public prosecutor asked for a five-year prison sentence for Barthelemy Dias, who in January was elected mayor of Dakar. The hearing was an appeal in a murder case that goes...
Talking Point: Egypt – Non-oil sector shrinks for 15th consecutive month
The purchasing managers’ index (PMI) came in at 48.1 pts in February – below the 50-mark level and just 0.2 pt higher than its January level. Both output levels and new orders recorded strong declines...
Talking Point: Zimbabwe – Food prices push inflation higher in February
Headline inflation accelerated at a quicker pace in February to reach its highest level since June 2021. Annual consumer price index (CPI) inflation rose by 5.5 ppts to 66.1% most recently, and overal...
Talking Point: Côte d’Ivoire – Industrial sector should enter 2022 on the front foot
The latest figures for Côte d’Ivoire’s Harmonised Index of Industrial Production (HIIP) indicate that the country’s industrial sector lost some momentum in the last month of 2021. The index, which is...
Talking Point: Uganda – A return to normality for private sector as PMI rises
The latest publication by IHS Markit/Stanbic Bank of the purchasing managers' index (PMI) shows that the index recorded another positive reading in February. In its latest report, IHS Markit/Stanbic B...
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.#Angola crude #oil production dipped for the second-consecutive month in March. Nevertheless, oil output did improve slightly in Q1 2022 as a whole compared with Q1 2021.
President Ouattara of #Cotedivore has named a vice-president: Tiemoko Meyliet Koné, an economist who has spent most of his career at the West African central bank, the BCEAO. The nomination is positive from the point of view of governance.
.#SouthAfrica headline inflation rate came in at 5.9% y-o-y in March, 0.2 ppt higher than the previous month. The March inflation print was slightly lower than the consensus forecast of 6.0% y-o-y.
In its WEO for April the #IMF makes downward revisions to the global growth outlook in response to the war in Ukraine. #Africa is an exception: the Fund’s view of growth in sub-Saharan Africa is unchanged since October. But the outlook for the price environment is bleak.
Inflation in #Sudan rose to 263.2% y-o-y in March. The October coup d'état has sent the already fragile economy into free fall. Living standards are rapidly deteriorating as prices continue to soar, and 18 million people are at risk of facing food insecurity in coming months.
.#Angola #inflation rate dips slightly in March, marking the second-straight disinflation reading this year. The stronger kwanza should give consumers some reprieve this year.
The number of #tourists visiting #Mauritius rose to 66,066 in March as Covid-19 restrictions were relaxed and pandemic-related fears became more of a faint memory.
The #inflation outlook in #Nigeria deteriorated over the past month as the headline print rose to 15.9% y-o-y due to food and fuel prices pressures. Inflation should continue trending upwards throughout Q2 and Q3, averaging above 16.0% this year.
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BESPOKE REPORT IN COLLABORATION WITH UNECA
Unemployment and underemployment remain pervasive across the continent, and demographic trends suggest that the situation will deteriorate further if not effectively addressed. In collaboration with UNECA, Oxford Economics Africa examined 34 employment initiatives across 15 different countries, with the aim that key lessons will inform policy recommendations across the continent.
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Oxford Economics Africa has extensive experience in measuring economic footprints and conducting policy impact assessments, with the latter often necessitating sophisticated modelling expertise to map out digital economies, measuring the impact of complex tax scenarios and assessing the impact of shocks. We have also expanded our service offering, covering economic, environmental, and social impacts across the value chain, on a consistent basis and comparable with Sustainable Development Goals and Greenhouse Gas Protocol metrics.