In-Depth Analysis
Libya
Libya is a textbook example of the dangers of the natural resource curse. The hydrocarbons sector is very vulnerable and accounts on average for around 70% of GDP, 90% of fiscal revenues, and 95% of export earnings. While oil production has increased since the 2011 revolution, ongoing fighting pose significant downside risks to the undiversified economy.
Oil production was largely undisrupted last year, and output increased by 5.3% q-o-q to an average of 1,163,000 bpd in Q4 2019. On an annual basis, oil production increased by 14.3% from an average of 960,000 bpd in 2018 to a seven-year high of 1,097,000 bpd in 2019. However, the war undercut the recovering hydrocarbons sector and stifled government consumption and investment spending, lowering economic growth from 15.7% in 2018 to 3.7% in 2019. The conflict has spilled over into the oil sector this year, as the Libyan National Army instituted a blockade on oil ports, attacked Tripoli’s harbour, and seized export terminals and several oilfields. Oil production remains vulnerable and is forecast to decline to 739,000 bpd in 2020, dragging real GDP growth down by 28.8%. (Source: Libya Annual Country Profile, published February 2020.)
Macroeconomic Data
(2019)
|
Fiscal Balance (as a % of GDP) |
-11.6 |
|
Consumer Price Index (% change y-o-y, avg) |
-2.1 |
|
Current Account Balance (as a % of GDP) |
11.2 |
|
Real GDP (annual % change) |
3.7 |
|
GDP per Capita, US$ |
10,826.7 |
|
Import Cover (months) |
46.2 |
|
Population, million |
6.8 |
| Total External Debt (as a % of GDP) |
8.4 |