In-Depth Analysis
Libya
Libya is a textbook example of the dangers of the natural resource curse. The hydrocarbons sector accounts on average for around 70% of GDP, 90% of fiscal revenues and 95% of export earnings. Private sector development, meanwhile, has been crowded out by an over-sized public sector which has distorted the local market and economic incentives.
After the disruptions to production in June and July, we now forecast that oil production will average 925,000 bpd this year compared to 975,000 bpd in our previous report. This should lead to real GDP growth in 2018 of around 14.7%. The last two years have seen unprecedented consumer price inflation (CPI), but we expect this year will see levels moderate to an average around 14.3%. On the political front, there is a seemingly endless list of challenges facing Libya’s political leaders in the run-up to elections scheduled for December. The clashes between militias in Tripoli that started towards the end of August only decrease the likelihood of addressing these issues and raise doubts that stability will come any time soon. (Source: Libya Quarterly Update, published September 2018.)
Macroeconomic Data
(2017)
|
Fiscal Balance (as a % of GDP) |
-2.6 |
|
Consumer Price Index (% change y-o-y, avg) |
4.8 |
|
Current Account Balance (as a % of GDP) |
-6.9 |
|
Real GDP (annual % change) |
6.1 |
|
GDP per Capita, US$ |
734.3 |
|
Import Cover (months) |
4.6 |
|
Population, million |
12.2 |
| Total External Debt (as a % of GDP) |
34.5 |