In-Depth Analysis
Libya
The Libyan economy is dominated by its 48,363 million barrels of proven oil reserves; the largest of any African nation. Currently in protracted civil war, oil exports have plummeted as negotiations surrounding a ceasefire continue. With few alternative sources of fiscal revenues or export earnings, finding a resolution remains essential.
Negotiations have failed to end the conflict between the Government of National Accord (GNA) and the Libyan National Army (LNA), with foreign actors only brokering a temporary ceasefire in July. Production and supply at the country’s largest oilfields and ports remain disrupted, and oil output is currently trending at its lowest level since 2011 Q3 – during the Arab Spring revolution. Oil production lowered by 79.8% y-o-y to 214,000 bpd in 2020 H1, and is forecast to decline from an average of 1,097,000 bpd in 2019 to a multi-decade low of 282,000 bpd in 2020. The weakened hydrocarbons sector continues to suppress oil export earnings, FDI inflows and forex reserves, significantly widening the current account and budget deficits. Consequently, economic activity is set to deteriorate severely this year, with real GDP forecast to contract by 55.2% in 2020. (Source: Libya Quarterly Update, published August 2020.)
Macroeconomic Data
(2019)
|
Fiscal Balance (as a % of GDP) |
-11.6 |
|
Consumer Price Index (% change y-o-y, avg) |
-2.2 |
|
Current Account Balance (as a % of GDP) |
11.2 |
|
Real GDP (annual % change) |
3.7 |
|
GDP per Capita, US$ |
10,825.8 |
|
Import Cover (months) |
45.0 |
|
Population, million |
6.8 |
| Total External Debt (as a % of GDP) |
8.4 |