In-Depth Analysis
Libya
The Libyan economy is dominated by its 48,363 million barrels of proven oil reserves; the largest of any African nation. Currently in protracted civil war, oil exports have plummeted as negotiations surrounding a ceasefire continue. With few alternative sources of fiscal revenues or export earnings, finding a resolution remains essential.
Seven months after a military blockade halted exports, Libya’s oil sector saw a significant boom in the fourth quarter of 2020 as a military ceasefire to the ongoing civil war was reached. The resurgence, which saw daily production increase from less than 100,000 to over 1.25 million bpd in less than three months’ time, took most analysts by surprise, sending jitters through global energy markets. Domestically the development was welcomed; Libya’s economy is exceedingly dependent on petrodollars for funding government subsidies and purchasing imports. The question now is whether the ceasefire will lead to a stable political disposition which could create the environment for further investment, or whether the dark days of conflict and blockade will return. (Source: Libya Quarterly Update, published December 2020.)
Macroeconomic Data
(2019)
|
Fiscal Balance (as a % of GDP) |
-11.6 |
|
Consumer Price Index (% change y-o-y, avg) |
-2.2 |
|
Current Account Balance (as a % of GDP) |
11.2 |
|
Real GDP (annual % change) |
3.7 |
|
GDP per Capita, US$ |
10,825.8 |
|
Import Cover (months) |
45.0 |
|
Population, million |
6.8 |
| Total External Debt (as a % of GDP) |
8.4 |