In-Depth Analysis
Libya
Libya is a textbook example of the dangers of the natural resource curse. The hydrocarbons sector accounts on average for around 70% of GDP, 90% of fiscal revenues and 95% of export earnings. Meanwhile, on the political front the country has endured years of instability following the uprising of 2011.
The Libyan National Army (LNA) continue their assault on Tripoli, home to the UN-recognised Government of National Accord (GNA). Due to disruptions, oil production declined by 4.5% q-o-q to 1.1 million bpd in 2019 Q3, and is forecast to average 1.07 million bpd in this year. Real GDP is expected to decelerate from 15.7% in 2018 to 2.3% in 2019. While oil output is currently at a six-year high, low trending international oil prices have stifled the impact of high oil production. Additionally, the ongoing conflict continues to suppress government consumption and investment spending, curtailing economic recovery. (Source: Libya Quarterly Update, published December 2019.)
Macroeconomic Data
(2018)
|
Fiscal Balance (as a % of GDP) |
-3.4 |
|
Consumer Price Index (% change y-o-y, avg) |
9.3 |
|
Current Account Balance (as a % of GDP) |
15.4 |
|
Real GDP (annual % change) |
15.7 |
|
GDP per Capita, US$ |
10,815.1 |
|
Import Cover (months) |
49.9 |
|
Population, million |
6.7 |
| Total External Debt (as a % of GDP) |
7.8 |