In-Depth Analysis
Libya
Libya is a textbook example of the dangers of the natural resource curse. The hydrocarbons sector accounts on average for around 70% of GDP, 90% of fiscal revenues and 95% of export earnings. Private sector development, meanwhile, has been crowded out by an over-sized public sector which has distorted the local market and economic incentives.
With polls scheduled for December now cancelled, the risk to oil production posed by conflict over the election period has receded. Thus, oil production for the year is now forecast to average 970,000 bpd. Real GDP growth of around 13.6% is forecast for 2018 and 9% for 2019 – if the political situation does not deteriorate significantly. Economic reforms implemented in September should strengthen the disinflation trend and reduce the premium for hard currency on the black market. We now expect consumer price index (CPI) inflation to average 10.8% this year compared to 28% in 2017. On the political front, the postponement of elections is meant to create space for greater dialogue and the adoption of a new constitution through a referendum. A more inclusive process with a firmer legal basis would make the elections and government brought to power through them more legitimate. (Source: Libya Quarterly Update, published December 2018.)
Macroeconomic Data
(2018)
|
Fiscal Balance (as a % of GDP) |
-12.6 |
|
Consumer Price Index (% change y-o-y, avg) |
10.9 |
|
Current Account Balance (as a % of GDP) |
8.1 |
|
Real GDP (annual % change) |
13.6 |
|
GDP per Capita, US$ |
9,058 |
|
Import Cover (months) |
44.9 |
|
Population, million |
6.5 |
| Total External Debt (as a % of GDP) |
9.6 |