Malawi

Malawi is one of Africa’s most impoverished countries and faces significant macro- and socio-economic challenges. The country is still undiversified, with its agricultural sector playing a large role in the country’s growth and development. Corruption perceptions are still a cause for concern for the economy, but donor support is slowly improving.

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Hopes that a fruitful tobacco marketing season would help the economy to avoid a Covid-19-induced contraction in 2020 were dashed when the season officially closed with a disappointing performance, worse than in 2019. Overall, we forecast the economy to contract by 1.2% in 2020 but to then rebound modestly from 2021-23, growing by 3.7% p.a. over this period. In our previous report, we lowered Malawi’s growth trajectory from 2021 onwards due to weak global economic conditions – we have now further lowered our growth trajectory to take into account an increase of 1°C in the average global temperature and the resultant negative impact on Malawi’s economy. (Source: Malawi Annual Country Profile, published November 2020.)

Macroeconomic Data

(2019)

Fiscal Balance (as a % of GDP)

-6.7

Consumer Price Index (% change y-o-y, avg)

9.4

Current Account Balance (as a % of GDP)

-24.0

Real GDP (annual % change)

4.4

GDP per Capita, US$

411.4

Import Cover (months)

3.1

Population, million

18.6
Total External Debt (as a % of GDP)

31.7
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