In-Depth Analysis
Malawi
Malawi is one of Africa’s most impoverished countries, and faces significant macro-and socio-economic challenges. Corruption perceptions harm the economy further by keeping donor nations away.
Tobacco remains Malawi’s main export category and forex earner. Positive news then that the 2018 tobacco auction season was the best season since 2014 in terms of total revenue. More specifically, tobacco revenues stood at $337.3m, which is 58.3% higher than revenues collected at the end of last year. Therefore, the current account deficit is forecast to narrow this year in percentage of GDP terms. However, we expect economic growth to slow down to 3.7% in 2018, as ongoing power issues and lower maize production outweigh higher tobacco production this year. Furthermore, fiscal spending increased substantially more than fiscal revenue during the first eight months of 2018, which is concerning. (Source: Malawi Quarterly Update, published November 2018.)
Macroeconomic Data
(2018)
|
Fiscal Balance (as a % of GDP) |
-8.2 |
|
Consumer Price Index (% change y-o-y, avg) |
9.2 |
|
Current Account Balance (as a % of GDP) |
-15.2 |
|
Real GDP (annual % change) |
3.7 |
|
GDP per Capita, US$ |
371 |
|
Import Cover (months) |
3.5 |
|
Population, million |
19.2 |
| Total External Debt (as a % of GDP) |
33.9 |