In-Depth Analysis
Malawi
Malawi is one of Africa’s most impoverished countries and faces significant macro- and socio-economic challenges. The country is still undiversified, with its agricultural sector playing a large role in the country’s growth and development. Corruption perceptions are still a cause for concern for the economy, but donor support is slowly improving.
We forecast the Malawian economy to contract by 1.2% in 2020, due to disruptions in fixed investments and exports. This figure is up from our previous forecast contraction of 2.1% in 2020. There is still some scope for optimism as a bumper harvest is expected this year, but the 2020 tobacco marketing season is set to dash hopes again after a promising start to 2020. Long-run economic growth prospects are uncertain as the country remains heavily dependent on the weather-vulnerable agricultural sector and is also still experiencing power disruptions. Malawi has made significant strides in democracy and respect for the rule of law. The court-sanctioned election re-run in June has been called a symbol of hope on the African continent. Despite a few incidents of pre-election political violence, the transition of power from former President Peter Mutharika to President Lazarus Chakwera was peaceful. (Source: Malawi Quarterly Update, published September 2020.)
Macroeconomic Data
(2019)
|
Fiscal Balance (as a % of GDP) |
-6.7 |
|
Consumer Price Index (% change y-o-y, avg) |
9.4 |
|
Current Account Balance (as a % of GDP) |
-24.0 |
|
Real GDP (annual % change) |
4.4 |
|
GDP per Capita, US$ |
411.4 |
|
Import Cover (months) |
3.1 |
|
Population, million |
18.6 |
| Total External Debt (as a % of GDP) |
34.7 |