In-Depth Analysis
Malawi
Malawi is one of Africa’s most impoverished countries, and faces significant macro-and socio-economic challenges. Corruption perceptions harm the economy further by keeping donor nations away.
We maintained our economic growth forecast at 3.0% for 2019 but lowered our 2020 and 2021 growth projections to 3.4% and 3.7%, respectively. The revision in our growth forecasts for the next couple of years is due to Malawi’s tobacco marketing season possibly coming under further pressure as it remains vulnerable to adverse weather conditions as well as global anti-tobacco sentiment and the US suspending tobacco imports from Malawi for alleged forced labour practices. Further downside risks to economic growth include limited foreign exchange reserves, an exchange rate coming under pressure, and a weaker global trade outlook. Long-run economic growth prospects remain uncertain as the country remains heavily dependent on the weather-vulnerable agricultural sector and is also still experiencing power disruptions. Politically, the past quarter has been extremely difficult and challenging for Malawi, with disputed elections, court actions, and violent protests. The latter appears set to continue into the final quarter of the year. (Source: Malawi Annual Country Profile, published November 2019.)
Macroeconomic Data
(2018)
|
Fiscal Balance (as a % of GDP) |
-7.2 |
|
Consumer Price Index (% change y-o-y, avg) |
9.2 |
|
Current Account Balance (as a % of GDP) |
-15.4 |
|
Real GDP (annual % change) |
3.5 |
|
GDP per Capita, US$ |
388.7 |
|
Import Cover (months) |
3.5 |
|
Population, million |
18.2 |
| Total External Debt (as a % of GDP) |
32.1 |