In-Depth Analysis
Morocco
A fairly diversified Moroccan economy will help mitigate damages from the Covid-19 pandemic relative to commodity dependant countries. The country remains vulnerable in two main areas: firstly, its external position is highly reliant on a slowing eurozone economy; secondly, rising temperatures and the delayed onset of rains threaten the agricultural sector.
The Moroccan economy has recovered well so far this year with total output coming in just below its pre-pandemic level in Q3. A bumper cereal harvest supported the economy in Q1, while a bounce-back in global demand saw real exports jump slightly above their pre-pandemic level in Q3. A jump in household consumption should support economic growth in Q4, following the loosening of Covid-19 restrictions after the deadly fourth wave. Despite remarkable progress on the vaccination front, government is remaining cautious when it comes to reopening the economy − demonstrated by the recent decision to ban flights from certain European countries − which could hold back the recovery in the tourism sector compared with other tourism-reliant North African peers. Overall, we have revised our forecast for real GDP growth to 6.2% this year, from 4.3% in the August forecast round, largely reflecting an upward revision by the High Commission for Planning of its Q2 estimate. (Source: Morocco Quarterly Update, published November 2021.)
Macroeconomic Data
(2020)
|
Fiscal Balance (as a % of GDP) |
-7.6 |
|
Consumer Price Index (% change y-o-y, avg) |
0.6 |
|
Current Account Balance (as a % of GDP) |
-1.4 |
|
Real GDP (annual % change) |
-6.3 |
|
GDP per Capita, US$ |
3,108.2 |
|
Import Cover (months) |
8.99 |
|
Population, million |
36.9 |
| Total External Debt (as a % of GDP) |
57.1 |