In-Depth Analysis
Morocco
The Moroccan economy is fairly well diversified. However, it remains vulnerable in two main areas: firstly, its external position is highly reliant on the euro zone; and secondly, private consumption is highly dependent on the agricultural sector.
Preliminary data shows that real GDP growth slowed to 2.4% in 2019, compared with 3.0% in 2018, owing largely to a rainfall deficit which weighed on the agricultural sector – this affected some of Morocco’s primary crops, including cereals and citrus. Softer growth in key export markets, such as the eurozone, also did not bode well for the extractions and processing industries. Meanwhile, non-agricultural sector growth edged slightly higher, hinting at improved performance in the electricity and water sectors, as well as in some tertiary sectors (including finance and insurance, business and personal services, and public administration). Despite the momentum lost in 2019, we forecast growth to tick higher to 3.1% this year (slightly lower than our forecast of 3.3% in the previous round), picking up to 3.5% p.a. over the medium term. This should be supported by weak, albeit improved prospects for agricultural production, as well as continued progress in high-value-added sectors, including automobile and aerospace industries. (Source: Morocco Quarterly Update, published February 2020.)
Macroeconomic Data
(2019)
|
Fiscal Balance (as a % of GDP) |
-4.0 |
|
Consumer Price Index (% change y-o-y, avg) |
0.3 |
|
Current Account Balance (as a % of GDP) |
-5.1 |
|
Real GDP (annual % change) |
2.4 |
|
GDP per Capita, US$ |
3,268.0 |
|
Import Cover (months) |
5.7 |
|
Population, million |
36.5 |
| Total External Debt (as a % of GDP) |
44.2 |