In-Depth Analysis
Mozambique
Despite challenges such as elevated public debt, recurrent adverse weather events, and an increase in minor insurgencies, the country has strong economic prospects thanks to the expected development of its bountiful coal and natural gas resources. Recent robust economic growth has had only a moderate impact on poverty reduction and human development – Mozambique remains one of the poorest countries in the world.
The economy is expected to contract this year for the first time since 1992 due to the Covid-19 pandemic. Exports, such as coal, aluminium and gemstones, will fall sharply this year due to shuttered mines, closed borders and diminished global demand. Furthermore, we forecast a freeze in new business and public investments projects due to economic uncertainty and weakened balance sheets. On the political front, the escalating Islamist insurgency in the north, depressed natural gas prices and Covid-19 are the biggest risks facing Mozambique over the short- to medium term, but a breakdown in relations between Frelimo and Renamo cannot be dismissed either. (Source: Mozambique Annual Country Profile, published August 2020.)
Macroeconomic Data
(2019)
|
Fiscal Balance (as a % of GDP) |
-3.8 |
|
Consumer Price Index (% change y-o-y, avg) |
2.8 |
|
Current Account Balance (as a % of GDP) |
-19.8 |
|
Real GDP (annual % change) |
2.3 |
|
GDP per Capita, US$ |
503.4 |
|
Import Cover (months) |
4.6 |
|
Population, million |
30.4 |
| Total External Debt (as a % of GDP) |
103.8 |