In-Depth Analysis
Namibia
The economy is small with an overreliance on certain key exports, namely diamonds, uranium, and fish. Relatively large fiscal deficits since 2009 have caused rapidly rising government external debt levels and slipping credit ratings. Rock-bottom diamond sales and quiet airport lobbies amid the Covid-19 crisis were major blows to the economy in H1 2020.
We maintain our forecast for a 7.4% contraction in real GDP this year and a relatively weak recovery of 4.7% in 2021 on the back of the lifting of containment measures and base effects. While the easing of Covid-19 containment measures and the reopening of international borders will support a bounce-back in services activity, the recovery is expected to be modest. Despite Swapo’s shrinking vote-share, the party is likely to dominate politics for the foreseeable future, and we do not see an imminent danger of a detrimental impact on the business environment. (Source: Namibia Quarterly Update, November 2020)
Macroeconomic Data
(2019)
|
Fiscal Balance (as a % of GDP) |
-4.9 |
|
Consumer Price Index (% change y-o-y, avg) |
3.7 |
|
Current Account Balance (as a % of GDP) |
-1.7 |
|
Real GDP (annual % change) |
-1.7 |
|
GDP per capital, US$ |
5,028.5 |
|
Import Cover (months) |
4.3 |
|
Population, million |
2.5 |
| Total External Debt (as a % of GDP) |
66.2 |