In-Depth Analysis
Namibia
The economy is small with an overreliance on certain key exports, namely diamonds, uranium, and fish. Relatively large fiscal deficits since 2009 have caused rapidly rising government external debt levels and slipping credit ratings. Rock-bottom diamond sales and quiet airport lobbies amid the Covid-19 crisis were major blows to the economy in H1 2020.
The economy technically exited a protracted recession in Q2 2021, but there is a moderate risk that real GDP will record a contraction in 2021 as the economy shrunk by 2.7% y-o-y in H1 2021. The latest figures have prompted us to lower our 2021 growth forecast to 0.3%, down from our previous projection of 1.6%. Political risk in the short to medium term will mainly stem from citizens’ growing support for populist movements, as the Swapo administration fails to address their socioeconomic woes. (Source: Namibia Quarterly Update, published October 2021)
Macroeconomic Data
(2020)
|
Fiscal Balance (as a % of GDP) |
-9.5 |
|
Consumer Price Index (% change y-o-y, avg) |
2.2 |
|
Current Account Balance (as a % of GDP) |
3.3 |
|
Real GDP (annual % change) |
-8.5 |
|
GDP per capita, US$ |
4,179.7 |
|
Import Cover (months) |
5.79 |
|
Population, million |
2.5 |
| Total External Debt (as a % of GDP) |
74.8 |