In-Depth Analysis
Nigeria
The Nigerian economy faces severe headwinds on account of the sharp drop in crude oil prices and the impact thereof on the country’s fiscal and external balances. Related currency issues limit investment, while instability (from jihadist terrorism and insurgencies in the south) have a further chilling effect.
The economy was slow out of the blocks at the start of the year and growth declined further in Q2 as oil output slumped due to pipeline leakages and agricultural performance weakened. We still expect GDP growth to rebound in H2 as oil production recovers, fiscal spending is ramped up and consumer demand gains some traction as lower inflation eases some of the pressure on disposable income levels. That said, it now seems as if this rebound will be slower than previously envisaged as the recovery in non-oil activity is struggling to gain significant traction. (Source: Nigeria Country Profile, published September 2018.)
Macroeconomic Data
(2017)
|
Fiscal Balance (as a % of GDP) |
-5.8 |
|
Consumer Price Index (% change y-o-y, avg) |
16.5 |
|
Current Account Balance (as a % of GDP) |
2.9 |
|
Real GDP (annual % change) |
0.8 |
|
GDP per Capita, US$ |
1,860 |
|
Import Cover (months) |
9.3 |
|
Population, million |
191.2 |
| Total External Debt (as a % of GDP) |
11.4 |