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Rwanda

The small East African nation has emerged as one of the continent’s bright spots in recent years. The country boasts a strong GDP growth outlook and is among the fastest-growing economies in Africa, thanks to good governance and accountable political institutions. An attractive business environment means the country enjoys significant foreign investor interest.

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The latest batch of national accounts data portrays an economy that has been put under tremendous strain during Q2. Rwanda’s economy has not endured a contraction of this magnitude in almost 25 years. Industry and services were the hardest hit, but we expect to see a notable rebound in H2 2020. Our initial prediction was that the economy would eke out a slight gain this year, but we have revised our forecast and now expect to see a contraction of 1.9%. There are few threats to regime stability over the short term; however, the economic impact of the Covid-19 pandemic may alter public sentiment over time. Developments in neighbouring countries remain a lingering threat. (Source: Rwanda Quarterly Update, published October 2020.)

Macroeconomic Data

(2019)

Fiscal Balance (as a % of GDP)

-5.5

Consumer Price Index (% change y-o-y, avg)

3.4

Current Account Balance (as a % of GDP)

-8.8

Real GDP (annual % change)

9.4

GDP per Capita, US$

801.7

Import Cover (months)

4.7

Population, million

12.6

Total External Debt (as a % of GDP)

58.6

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