In-Depth Analysis
Rwanda
The small East African nation has emerged as one of the continent’s bright spots in recent years. The country boasts a strong GDP growth outlook and is among the fastest-growing economies in Africa, thanks to good governance and accountable political institutions. An attractive business environment means the country enjoys significant foreign investor interest.
Following the deepest contraction since the early 1990s in Q2 2020 (-10.2% q-o-q), the latest official data shows a recovery in Q3. This aligns with our view that the economy rebounded in H2 2020 following the easing of strict lockdown conditions. The impact of Covid-19 on the agricultural sector has been limited. However, the pandemic has led to delays in the execution of construction projects, while fluctuating commodity prices, coupled with increased global financial market volatility, continues to constrain mining activity. The total number of infections and deaths remain comparatively low, at 12,975 and 174, respectively, and authorities have been credited with mounting an effective response to the pandemic, including border closures and flight bans. The disruptions and economic impact of the Covid-19 pandemic do not appear to have altered public sentiment significantly, but challenges remain. Overall, we expect real GDP to grow at a rate of 8% in 2021. (Source: Rwanda Quarterly Update, published January 2021.)
Macroeconomic Data
(2020)
|
Fiscal Balance (as a % of GDP) |
-9.0 |
|
Consumer Price Index (% change y-o-y, avg) |
9.9 |
|
Current Account Balance (as a % of GDP) |
-11.7 |
|
Real GDP (annual % change) |
-3.0/p> |
|
GDP per Capita, US$ |
772.5 |
|
Import Cover (months) |
5.7 |
|
Population, million |
13.0 |
| Total External Debt (as a % of GDP) |
75.9 |