In-Depth Analysis
Senegal
Much of Senegal's economic growth during the next few years will be concentrated in the expanding mining sector related to increased production and investment. Infrastructure development is improving the operating environment.
Economic growth figures disappointed in Q2 2018, prompting us to lower our real GDP growth forecast for the year. That said, we still expect real GDP growth to reach 6.5% this year mostly thanks to continued stimulus from the Emerging Senegal Plan (PSE) but also because of a strong tertiary sector as the country establishes itself as a regional services hub. Besides the ongoing fiscal expenditure related to the PSE, a higher energy subsidy increased pressure on fiscal spending in recent months. We have therefore increased our forecast for government expenditure growth in 2018, and expect the fiscal deficit to be wider than in our earlier projections. Moreover, we expect a widening of the current account deficit this year due to strong import growth. On the political front, most news this past quarter relates to the presidential election scheduled for February 2019, in which President Macky Sall will almost certainly be re-elected to a shortened term of five years. (Source: Senegal Quarterly Update, October 2018.)
Macroeconomic Data
(2018)
|
Fiscal Balance (as a % of GDP) |
-4.7 |
|
Consumer Price Index (% change y-o-y, avg) |
0.5 |
|
Current Account Balance (as a % of GDP) |
-8.7 |
|
Real GDP (annual % change) |
6.5 |
|
GDP per Capita, US$ |
1,158 |
|
Import Cover (months) |
5.0 |
|
Population, million |
16.3 |
| Total External Debt (as a % of GDP) |
47.7 |