In-Depth Analysis
South Africa
A decade of ‘State Capture’, economic policy uncertainty, unreliable electricity, and an economy decimated by Covid-19 containment measures all weigh on the Rainbow Nation’s outlook. South Africa continues to boast the continent’s most sophisticated economy, with a world-class financial sector and some globally respected institutions, but other African peers are swiftly gaining ground.
Economic activity accelerated over the past quarter, which follows a better-than-expected Q1 GDP print. Therefore, we revised our economic growth forecast for 2021 higher. Nevertheless, the country finds itself in the midst of a third wave of infections, which, depending on the severity, poses a threat to the recovery progress. Furthermore, the slow vaccination drive opens the possibility of more waves to hit the country. Consumer price pressures have intensified in recent months, while elevated commodity prices continue to buoy exports, leading to record trade surpluses. On the fiscal front, wage bill negotiations present a risk to fiscal consolidation efforts. (Source: South Africa Annual Country Profile, published July 2021)
Macroeconomic Data
(2020)
|
Fiscal Balance (as a % of GDP) |
-10.7 |
|
Consumer Price Index (% change y-o-y, avg) |
3.3 |
|
Current Account Balance (as a % of GDP) |
2.0 |
|
Real GDP (annual % change) |
-7.0 |
|
GDP per Capita, US$ |
5,128.6 |
|
Import Cover (months) |
6.83 |
|
Population, million |
59.4 |
| Total External Debt (as a % of GDP) |
49.9 |