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South Africa

A decade of ‘State Capture’, economic policy uncertainty, unreliable electricity, and an economy decimated by Covid-19 containment measures all weigh on the Rainbow Nation’s outlook. South Africa continues to boast the continent’s most sophisticated economy, with a world-class financial sector and some globally respected institutions, but other African peers are swiftly gaining ground.

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Our outlook for the South African economy weakened over the past quarter as a result of the second wave of Covid-19 infections and the subsequent renewed adjusted level 3 restrictions. Furthermore, data releases revealed that the economic recovery had flattened out even before the second wave set in. We therefore expect a contraction during Q1, while also lowering our growth forecast for the full year. The renewed restrictions will also have a marked effect on revenues, and we project more job losses. Against the backdrop of a deteriorating fiscus, these developments will further compound National Treasury’s task ahead of the budget speech in February. (Source: South Africa Quarterly Update, published January 2021)

Macroeconomic Data

(2020)

Fiscal Balance (as a % of GDP)

-6.6

Consumer Price Index (% change y-o-y, avg)

3.3

Current Account Balance (as a % of GDP)

2.0

Real GDP (annual % change)

-7.3

GDP per Capita, US$

5,064.8

Import Cover (months)

6.8

Population, million

59.4

Total External Debt (as a % of GDP)

52.6

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