In-Depth Analysis
Tunisia
GDP growth has picked up gradually in line with a rebound in tourism revenues and the implementation of reforms that form part of an IMF support programme, but labour protests continue to present risks to the outlook as high unemployment, rising inflation, and poor working conditions fuel social tensions and slow the pace of further reforms.
The coronavirus pandemic has brought an end to Tunisia’s 32-month growth streak, with real GDP declining by 1.5% y-o-y in 2020 Q1. Supply chain disruptions, lower trade, and weak global demand are expected to create a further drag on the economy, and the lucrative tourism industry is set to have its worst year in nearly a decade. Therefore, real GDP is expected to contract by 7.7% in 2020, rebounding with growth of 6.8% in 2021. Easing trade tensions were expected to bolster trade this year; however, with Covid-19 disrupting supply chains, weakening global growth and demand, this failed to materialise. The exchange rate is expected to depreciate during 2020 H2 due to lower FX inflows and declining trade, leading to rising inflation. As is the case everywhere, Tunisia has been unbalanced by the Covid-19 pandemic, which has had the paradoxical effect of simultaneously stressing the political environment, and temporarily putting normal politics on the back burner. We consider our overall political risk assessment of low to moderate with a negative trend appropriate and maintain it in this report. (Source: Tunisia Annual Country Profile, published June 2020)
Macroeconomic Data
(2019)
|
Fiscal Balance (as a % of GDP) |
-3.1 |
|
Consumer Price Index (% change y-o-y, avg) |
6.7 |
|
Current Account Balance (as a % of GDP) |
-9.1 |
|
Real GDP (annual % change) |
1.0 |
|
GDP per Capita, US$ |
3,299.9 |
|
Import Cover (months) |
3.7 |
|
Population, million |
11.7 |
| Total External Debt (as a % of GDP) |
96.5 |