Angola
After gaining independence from Portugal in 1975, the country’s infrastructure was ravaged by civil war for nearly 30 years. The economy remains overly reliant on the crude oil industry, with petroleum accounting for roughly 95% of goods exports and more than 60% of government tax revenues. Efforts to clamp down on corruption and improve the business environment have intensified since President Lourenço took charge in 2018.
Any optimism that the economy could emerge from a four-year recession in 2020 was completely dashed by the oil price war that erupted in March. The slide in the benchmark oil price intensified in 2020 due to further concerns about global demand as the world has gone into lockdown to prevent the spread of the novel coronavirus and as Saudi Arabia and Russia have engaged in an oil price war. We now forecast real GDP will contract by 2.8% in 2020, before finally recovering with growth of 0.9% in 2021. On the political front, attempts to bring the Dos Santos family to justice and recoup money lost to graft have intensified in the recent quarter, but the weaker fiscal outlook may delay privatisation efforts which were already lagging. Nevertheless, positive reforms by the Angolan government and a privatisation drive could steer growth in the non-oil economy over the medium term. (Source: Angola Annual Country Profile, published April 2020)
Macroeconomic Data
(2019)
Fiscal Balance (as a % of GDP)
Consumer Price Index (% change y-o-y, avg)
Current Account Balance (as a % of GDP)
Real GDP (annual % change)
GDP per Capita, US$
Import Cover (months)
Population, million
Total External Debt (as a % of GDP)
1.4
17.1
3.9
-1.1
2,636.5
8.5
31.8
79.1