In-Depth Analysis
Botswana
Botswana has an excellent track record of political and macroeconomic stability as well as a sound regulatory environment. The economy has a heavy reliance on the diamond and tourism industries, which were adversely affected by the Covid-19 pandemic. The country has some potential to expand its coal mining, energy, and transport industries.
After recording a 7.9% contraction, the deepest on record, Botswana is expected to benefit from the global economic recovery, with real GDP expanding by 6.5% in 2021. This is slightly higher than our previous forecast of 6.3%. However, recent diamond sales from De Beers show that the disruptions related to the pandemic will result in bottlenecks in the cutting and manufacturing of rough diamonds, but we remain optimistic about the recovery in the US, specifically with more fiscal stimulus on the way. We perceive the risks to the forecast to be balanced. The downside risks include a slow pace of vaccination and recurrent lockdowns. Upside risks include higher commodity prices and stronger demand for diamond jewellery. (Source: Botswana Annual Country Profile, published May 2021.)
Macroeconomic Data
(2020)
|
Fiscal Balance (as a % of GDP) |
-11.0 |
|
Consumer Price Index (% change y-o-y, avg) |
1.9 |
|
Current Account Balance (as a % of GDP) |
-10.6 |
|
Real GDP (annual % change) |
-7.9 |
|
GDP per Capita, US$ |
6,747.9 |
|
Import Cover (months) |
8.22 |
|
Population, million |
2.4 |
| Total External Debt (as a % of GDP) |
24.3 |