In-Depth Analysis
Botswana
Botswana has an excellent track record of political and macroeconomic stability as well as a sound regulatory environment. The economy has a heavy reliance on the diamond and tourism industries, which were adversely affected by the Covid-19 pandemic. The country has some potential to expand its coal mining, energy, and transport industries.
Botswana suffered a particularly weak performance in the second quarter of this year, with real GDP contracting by 24.0% y-o-y, significantly worse than our previously forecast deterioration of 16.1% y-o-y. Although recent diamond production and sales figures point to a hopeful recovery in the luxuries market, the return of lockdowns in major economies brings much uncertainty and over the medium term, the economic growth outlook faces substantial downside risk, despite the optimism sparked by the recent success of a potential vaccine against Covid-19. We now expect the economy to contract by 11.8% this year, followed by a recovery of 5.6% in 2021. (Source: Botswana Quarterly Update, published November 2020.)
Macroeconomic Data
(2019)
|
Fiscal Balance (as a % of GDP) |
-6.0 |
|
Consumer Price Index (% change y-o-y, avg) |
2.8 |
|
Current Account Balance (as a % of GDP) |
-7.6 |
|
Real GDP (annual % change) |
3.0 |
|
GDP per Capita, US$ |
7,964.5 |
|
Import Cover (months) |
10.0 |
|
Population, million |
2.3 |
| Total External Debt (as a % of GDP) |
11.0 |