In-Depth Analysis
Botswana
Botswana has an excellent track record of political and macroeconomic stability as well as a well-developed mining sector and sound regulatory environment. The economy has a heavy reliance on diamonds and tourism, but potential exists in the coal mining, energy and transport sectors.
We forecast real GDP growth at 3.6% in 2019, down from 4.4% in 2018 due to a softer outlook for exports. Beyond the general downside risk for commodity prices; rising trade tensions, slower economic growth in the main diamond consumer markets and major scheduled mine closures have taken a toll on global diamond production. The ongoing crippling drought threatens agricultural exports and production of core industries such as farming and livestock. We expect real GDP growth to recover to 3.9% in 2020 on the back of stronger global growth, coupled with increased fixed investment in coal and diamond mining. In terms of political developments, President Mokgweetsi Masisi of the Botswana Democratic Party (BDP) was sworn in early November as the country’s fifth president since independence after the BDP secured yet another election victory on October 23 following an intense election campaign and a formal protest by the defeated opposition alliance, the Umbrella for Democratic Change (UDC). (Source: Botswana Quarterly Update, published November 2019.)
Macroeconomic Data
(2018)
|
Fiscal Balance (as a % of GDP) |
-3.3 |
|
Consumer Price Index (% change y-o-y, avg) |
3.2 |
|
Current Account Balance (as a % of GDP) |
2.1 |
|
Real GDP (annual % change) |
4.4 |
|
GDP per Capita, US$ |
8,260.9 |
|
Import Cover (months) |
11.0 |
|
Population, million |
2.3 |
| Total External Debt (as a % of GDP) |
9.4 |