Cameroon
Cameroon is a country with abundant natural resources, but the cumbersome business environment and infrastructure gaps are major obstacles. The centralised power structure keeps political risk elevated at a time of increasing demands for autonomy from the English-speaking region.
Economic growth averaged 4.6% in 2018, higher than our previous estimate of 4%. GDP growth in 2018 was driven by the tertiary sector (which showed growth of 5.1%) followed by the primary sector (3.8%) and the secondary sector (3.5%). Healthy growth can also be attributed largely to a lower-than-anticipated contraction in real exports, as the decline in oil production levels actually seen was smaller than we had first feared it would be, and oil and gas production at the Hilli Episeyo floating liquefied natural gas plant (FLNG) started last year. Future oil production, however, is still forecast to follow a downward trajectory, albeit at a slower rate than previously estimated. Going forward, growth should also be supported by the completion of Afcon-related construction projects and the coming online of various transport and energy projects. Our forecast is for GDP growth to reach 4.4% this year and to average 4.8% p.a. over the medium term. Considerable downside risks to the non-oil sector outlook exist, however, given the postponement of Cameroon’s hosting of the Afcon tournament from 2019 to 2021, as well as high political risk. (Source: Cameroon Country Annual Profile, August 2019.)
Macroeconomic Data
(2018)
|
Fiscal Balance (as a % of GDP) |
-2.7 |
|
Consumer Price Index (% change y-o-y, avg) |
1.1 |
|
Current Account Balance (as a % of GDP) |
-3.8 |
|
Real GDP (annual % change) |
4.6 |
|
GDP per Capita, US$ |
1,525 |
|
Import Cover (months) |
5.3 |
|
Population, million |
25.2 |
| Total External Debt (as a % of GDP) |
30.1 |