In-Depth Analysis
Egypt
Macroeconomic indicators have improved significantly over the past two years thanks to a bold reform programme. However, structural challenges related to a high level of state presence in the economy are keeping medium-term growth subdued, while the fiscal position remains heavily burdened by high domestic public debt levels.
Real GDP growth is forecast to increase this year thanks to rising capital spending and continued investment into key sectors. Fiscal consolidation remains on track, with subsidy spending expected to decline this year, creating scope to raise investment spending. The non-oil private sector is struggling to shake off the negative effects of the reform programme and remains in contraction territory. Nonetheless, easing of monetary policy should provide consumers and local businesses some reprieve. Medium-term economic growth is still favourable, supported by renewed investment and ongoing reforms, but President Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi’s decision to remain in power for an extended period of time could lead to continued crowding out of the private sector. (Source: Egypt Quarterly Update, published February 2019.)
Macroeconomic Data
(2018)
|
Fiscal Balance (as a % of GDP) |
-9.5 |
|
Consumer Price Index (% change y-o-y, avg) |
14.4 |
|
Current Account Balance (as a % of GDP) |
-1.7 |
|
Real GDP (annual % change) |
5.3 |
|
GDP per Capita, US$ |
2,786.5 |
|
Import Cover (months) |
6.4 |
|
Population, million |
99.3 |
| Total External Debt (as a % of GDP) |
34.2 |