In-Depth Analysis
Egypt
Thanks to the adoption of reforms under an ambitious IMF programme, Egypt’s macroeconomic indicators have improved notably. This has made Egypt fairly resilient to the shocks brought about by Covid-19 and should help support a strong bounce-back relative to its North African counterparts. A high level of state presence in the economy and high domestic public debt levels are some of its ongoing challenges.
While preliminary figures suggest that the Egyptian economy expanded for the fourth consecutive quarter in Q2, a closer look at the data reveals that real GDP growth decelerated on a quarterly basis. This was expected, as PMI figures already suggested that the recovery had stagnated amid the third wave of Covid-19 infections (which took place over the April to July period). The output and new orders sub-indices in the non-oil sector expanded for the second time in nine months in August, but we remain cautious in our assumptions for a recovery into Q4, as the fourth wave of Covid-19 infections takes hold. We expect to see a return to more stringent Covid-19 restrictions in coming weeks, which will weigh on the recovery in Q4. (Source: Egypt Quarterly Update, published September 2021.)
Macroeconomic Data
(2020)
|
Fiscal Balance (as a % of GDP) |
-7.9 |
|
Consumer Price Index (% change y-o-y, avg) |
5.0 |
|
Current Account Balance (as a % of GDP) |
-3.7 |
|
Real GDP (annual % change) |
1.5 |
|
GDP per Capita, US$ |
3,718.4 |
|
Import Cover (months) |
5.7 |
|
Population, million |
102.3 |
| Total External Debt (as a % of GDP) |
34.9 |