Egypt

While we suspect that the Egyptian economy has passed its lowest point, the latest Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data suggests that the economy is not quite out of the woods yet. After rising to its highest level in 12 months in July (49.6 pts), the PMI declined to 49.4 pts in August. This signals a faster deterioration in non-oil sector business conditions, compared to the previous month. Although Covid-19 restrictions have been widely lifted across the country, domestic demand conditions have remained muted as consumers and local businesses struggle to navigate the post-lockdown environment. While certain PMI sub-indices for August provided some reason to be optimistic – the output sub-index grew marginally in August, albeit at a weaker pace than in July – others did not. For example, the employment sub-index marked its 10th consecutive monthly decline, suggesting that consumers may continue to tighten their purse strings as layoffs persist. Overall, real GDP growth is estimated at 0.3% in the 2019/20 FY and is forecast at -4.2% in the 2020/21 FY. This represents a contraction of 7.5% this calendar year. (Source: Egypt Quarterly Update, published September 2020.)

Macroeconomic Data

(2019)