In-Depth Analysis
Gabon
Gabon’s small population provides for relative stability, but the lower oil price environment has placed pressure on the government to cut fiscal spending and speed up the diversification of the oil-dependent economy. Low legitimacy and constraints on the ability of President Ali Bongo to extend his patronage networks provide for underlying tensions on the political front.
Economic conditions have slowly started to improve in recent years with provisional estimates pointing towards a respectable upturn in growth in 2019. The non-oil economy performed strongly last year, largely driven by a ramp-up in manganese and timber production. Meanwhile, the oil sector turned a corner after multiple years of stagnation with production rising strongly in 2019. On the back of these developments, GDP growth is estimated to have risen to 3.4% in 2019, and economic conditions were expected to improve steadily. However, based on recent global events, oil-dependent Gabon’s short- to-medium-term outlook has turned decidedly precarious. The impact of the recent drop in international oil prices will be magnified by the enactment of Covid-19 containments measures by governments around the world. This dual shock is expected to hit Gabon especially hard given the country’s dependence on oil export revenues and fragile economic base. Consequently, we have revised our short-term growth forecast significantly lower and expect to see the economy contract in 2020. (Source: Gabon Annual Country Profile, published April 2020)
Macroeconomic Data
(2019)
|
Fiscal Balance (as a % of GDP) |
0.8 |
|
Consumer Price Index (% change y-o-y, avg) |
2.1 |
|
Current Account Balance (as a % of GDP) |
-1.4 |
|
Real GDP (annual % change) |
3.4 |
|
GDP per Capita, US$ |
7,693.4 |
|
Import Cover (months) |
3.6 |
|
Population, million |
2.2 |
| Total External Debt (as a % of GDP) |
41.9 |