In-Depth Analysis
Gabon
Gabon’s small population provides for stability, but recent political dramas may have a negative impact on the business environment (especially through an unstable organised labour space). Lower oil rents have forced the government to cut fiscal spending and speed up diversification.
On the political front, President Ali Bongo has been absent from the country since he suffered some kind of medical accident while abroad. As those close to him remain tight-lipped about the severity of his condition, Gabonese are preparing for what comes next, and the situation is fluid. We expect more strike action and opposition forcefulness in the president’s absence. Turning to the economics, our oil price forecast for 2019 is now much lower than before: we now project crude prices to average only $63 pb next year, compared to our earlier forecast of $76.5 per barrel (pb). Lower crude prices will have a significant impact on many of Gabon’s important macroeconomic variables, including government revenues, export earnings and GDP growth. Lower crude prices are especially concerning considering the country’s challenging fiscal position. (Source: Gabon Quarterly Update, published December 2018)
Macroeconomic Data
(2018)
|
Fiscal Balance (as a % of GDP) |
-1.4 |
|
Consumer Price Index (% change y-o-y, avg) |
2.8 |
|
Current Account Balance (as a % of GDP) |
-2.7 |
|
Real GDP (annual % change) |
1.5 |
|
GDP per Capita, US$ |
7,852 |
|
Import Cover (months) |
2.2 |
|
Population, million |
2.1 |
| Total External Debt (as a % of GDP) |
43.8 |