In-Depth Analysis
Gabon
Gabon’s small population provides for relative stability, but the lower oil price environment has placed pressure on the government to cut fiscal spending and speed up the diversification of the oil-dependent economy. Low legitimacy and constraints on the ability of President Ali Bongo to extend his patronage networks provide for underlying tensions on the political front.
The Covid-19 crisis dealt a heavy blow to the Gabonese economy in 2020. Growth, trade activity, and fiscal finances all suffered as the country’s main export commodity, oil, experienced a severe price slump. Initial expectations pointed towards a strong economic rebound in 2021. However, the persistence of the coronavirus pandemic, along with weak prospects for local oil production, means that the outlook is now more pessimistic. Gabon also lacks a clear vaccination plan, while pressure on fiscal debt levels continues to rise. Consequently, we now project real GDP growth of only 2.0% this year. (Source: Gabon Quarterly Update, published March 2021)
Macroeconomic Data
(2020)
|
Fiscal Balance (as a % of GDP) |
-4.1 |
|
Consumer Price Index (% change y-o-y, avg) |
1.4 |
|
Current Account Balance (as a % of GDP) |
-5.8 |
|
Real GDP (annual % change) |
-6.2 |
|
GDP per Capita, US$ |
6,573.3 |
|
Import Cover (months) |
2.5 |
|
Population, million |
2.2 |
| Total External Debt (as a % of GDP) |
58.0 |