In-Depth Analysis
Gabon
Gabon’s small population provides for relative stability, but the lower oil price environment has placed pressure on the government to cut fiscal spending and speed up the diversification of the oil-dependent economy. Low legitimacy and constraints on the ability of President Ali Bongo to extend his patronage networks provide for underlying tensions on the political front.
Government responded early and decisively to the Covid-19 pandemic, announcing stimulus measures worth 4.6% of GDP to provide a safety net to firms and households. However, the collapse in the oil price since February means government revenues will be down by a third this year, and debt will increase sharply. The rest of the economy will suffer, too: exports will shrink sharply because of lower commodity prices, and the services sector will be constrained by restrictions in response to the virus. We are forecasting the worst contraction in real GDP since 1999. (Source: Gabon Quarterly Update, published July 2020)
Macroeconomic Data
(2019)
|
Fiscal Balance (as a % of GDP) |
1.9 |
|
Consumer Price Index (% change y-o-y, avg) |
2.5 |
|
Current Account Balance (as a % of GDP) |
-1.3 |
|
Real GDP (annual % change) |
3.4 |
|
GDP per Capita, US$ |
7,769.5 |
|
Import Cover (months) |
3.6 |
|
Population, million |
2.2 |
| Total External Debt (as a % of GDP) |
41.5 |