Gabon
Gabon’s small population provides for stability, but recent political dramas may have a negative impact on the business environment (especially through an unstable organised labour space). Lower oil rents have forced the government to cut fiscal spending and speed up diversification.
Economic growth is forecast to pick up at 2.4% this year underpinned by the start of oil production at the Tortue oil field, as well as an uptick in the non-oil economy, especially in manganese mining and timber industries. This is after the 2014-16 oil price slump drove the country into economic downturn. The oil price slump brought both the current account and fiscal balances into deficit territory, however, a relatively higher oil price over the 2017-18 period is thought to have helped improve the country’s external and fiscal positions. Looking ahead, we maintain a cautious outlook given a relatively lower oil price forecast (averaging $63.9pb p.a. over the 2019-22 period). This will likely result in the current - and fiscal accounts venturing deeper into deficit territory over the medium term. On the political front, a cabinet reshuffle in June led to promotions for close collaborators of Regis Landry Laccruche Alihanga. For now, we see Mr Alihanga as firmly in control of the ruling party and think the removal of President Ali Bongo from office appears less likely than ever. (Source: Gabon Quarterly Update, published June 2019)
Macroeconomic Data
(2018)
|
Fiscal Balance (as a % of GDP) |
0.4 |
|
Consumer Price Index (% change y-o-y, avg) |
4.8 |
|
Current Account Balance (as a % of GDP) |
-1.7 |
|
Real GDP (annual % change) |
1.2 |
|
GDP per Capita, US$ |
8,019.2 |
|
Import Cover (months) |
2.2 |
|
Population, million |
2.1 |
| Total External Debt (as a % of GDP) |
40.3 |