In-Depth Analysis
Gabon
Gabon’s small population provides for relative stability, but the lower oil price environment has placed pressure on the government to cut fiscal spending and speed up the diversification of the oil-dependent economy. Low legitimacy and constraints on the ability of President Ali Bongo to extend his patronage networks provide for underlying tensions on the political front.
GDP growth is expected to increase to 2.7% this year thanks to rising oil production and stronger growth in the non-oil sector, specifically in the manganese and timber industries. Oil production is forecast to increase by 3.3% (compared to -5.2% in 2018), while manganese and timber output is expected to rise by 9.8% and 4.8%, respectively. Nevertheless, the global economic slowdown and weaker oil price environment are set to hinder the country’s GDP growth potential this year. The price of oil is forecast to decline from an average of $71.1pb in 2018 to an average of $63.2pb in 2019. On the political front, given some recent personnel changes in the Gabonese government, we think that President Ali Bongo is regaining his mental faculties. He is reasserting his control over the levers of government and empowering people close to him. (Source: Gabon Quarterly Update, published December 2019)
Macroeconomic Data
(2018)
|
Fiscal Balance (as a % of GDP) |
-0.2 |
|
Consumer Price Index (% change y-o-y, avg) |
4.7 |
|
Current Account Balance (as a % of GDP) |
-2.1 |
|
Real GDP (annual % change) |
1.2 |
|
GDP per Capita, US$ |
8,032.7 |
|
Import Cover (months) |
3.1 |
|
Population, million |
2.1 |
| Total External Debt (as a % of GDP) |
39.8 |