In-Depth Analysis
Gabon
Gabon’s small population provides for stability, but recent political dramas may have a negative impact on the business environment (especially through an unstable organised labour space). Lower oil rents have forced the government to cut fiscal spending and speed up diversification.
A lower oil price environment continues to place pressure on key macroeconomic variables, including GDP growth, government revenues and export earnings. The loss in government revenue will likely place downward pressure on expenditure growth, especially important public investment expenditures in non-oil sectors, which are necessary for the country’s economic diversification strategy to progress. A slow recovery in the oil price is also not enough to make up for government revenue lost thus far, however, corrective measures to boost non-oil revenues and contain non-priority spending will be carried over into 2019. On the political front, the situation is less fluid compared to December since President Ali Bongo has returned home. Although we do not think President Bongo is in very good shape, we expect the status quo to hold and see political risk as trending neutral, from negative before. (Source: Gabon Annual Country Profile, published March 2019)
Macroeconomic Data
(2018)
|
Fiscal Balance (as a % of GDP) |
-1.0 |
|
Consumer Price Index (% change y-o-y, avg) |
4.4 |
|
Current Account Balance (as a % of GDP) |
-2.7 |
|
Real GDP (annual % change) |
1.5 |
|
GDP per Capita, US$ |
7,794 |
|
Import Cover (months) |
2.3 |
|
Population, million |
2.1 |
| Total External Debt (as a % of GDP) |
42.9 |